10 days and counting

It’s a quarter past mid-day and Friday Prayers are in progress. The TV is on, and we can see the crowds massed in Tahrir Square. Outside our flat the fields are quiet apart from sound of the prayers from the mosque at the end of the lane – and the rumble of a passing tractor, since harvests and animals don’t wait for politics.

Tahrir Square is now the quietest it has been for 10 days, as the prayers go on. I would imagine that all across Egypt, people are similarly quiet, waiting to see what happens next.  (The moments after Friday prayers are typically when unrest begins – as people who have gathered together begin to leave mosques.)

We can hear 3 mosques now from our balcony (the one at the end of the lane was a little ahead of the others.) The noise is great: “God is great.”

* * * * *

I have been thinking long and hard since I posted my last update. Sitting down now to write, I want to pass on some of the different feelings people have expressed to me over the last week. I think the people I know or have met in passing represent a fairly broad range of social class and outlook: well-off or not; university degrees or barely literate; Muslim and Christian; from town or country or between the two as many are, living in the city but with strong ties to their family’s villages.

It would be nice to say that a single voice unites these people, but this is not the case.

Many of my friends have made their antipathy to the government clear on Facebook in recent days. But a good deal of others have expressed their support for Mubarak. It isn’t possible to determine what ‘type’ of person might express one view or the other. It isn’t about what your religious views are, or your social background. One religious conservative I know is staunchly with the government. Another is desperate for reform. There are the same differences with friends who have been educated at international schools (in English with a US or UK curriculum).

But then why should we expect anything else? In the UK and in America, we might make some broad assumptions about what sort of person is Tory or Labour, Republican or Democrat, but in fact support could come from anywhere. Remember this point – I’ll come back to it later.

My overall impression is that nearly everyone wants change, that most people think that Mubarak’s government is the first thing that needs to change, but that when it comes to the timescales, particularly with the fear of chaos, voices are much less unified.

* * * * *

Over the last few days the biggest group of people, from both sides of the debate, have been calling simply for calm to resume.

This is the great difficulty. Tourists have fled from Luxor in their thousands. Most of the foreigners who remain are long-term residents. Tourism is the life-blood of Luxor. A Canadian neighbour who went across the river yesterday reported that the five-star hotels are essentially empty, and the staff have been sent home (and won’t get paid as a result.)

Reports from other towns are grim. TV cameras are tuned on Cairo and Alexandria, (and tourist-sustained Luxor is a different kettle of fish.) But a young man with relatives in Minya, for example, reports that the situation there is bad. Similarly an old internet friend reports that in Port Said order has broken down: they are relying on the Imam from the nearest mosque to warn them over the loudspeakers when looters are approaching their building, so they can defend themselves with sticks and stones.

* * * * *

Yesterday in an interview with ABC News, President Mubarak said that he feared such chaos if he stood down now. The irony here is that in trying to fortify his position in this way, he has exposed the greatest weakness of his system. Egypt is a country of 80 million people. It borders Sudan, Israel, Libya and Jordan. It joins Europe to the oil supplies of the Gulf via the Suez Canal. If the stability of all this is contingent upon the rule of ONE man, as Mubarak claims, then the world has a lot to worry about. He’s in his eighties, don’t forget.

On the other hand, if an American president fell, or a British Prime Minister, or a German chancellor, then the world might sense the ripples, but the apparatus of that country would continue. The police would continue to protect citizens and maintain the law; the financial system would go on functioning, and people would get paid. Belgium has functioned without a government for months!

We complain a lot in the UK. (We are free to complain as much as we like, thank heavens.) But ultimately we have a whole series of checks and balances which maintain a stable system. Power is not concentrated in the hands of one man and one regime. The government has power, but the civil service is a machine of its own; the police, the army, the media, large private companies, religious organisations, charities, celebrities, social groups – all have power in different forms, and the ability to influence the way the country operates.

So either Mubarak is right, and he is all that stands between order and chaos, in which case something needs to change for the safety of the region. Or he’s wrong, in which case change can take place readily, for the safety of the region.

* * * * *

So how has Mubarak sustained his position?

Earlier on I mentioned the broad spectrum of views, and the disparate nature of the people who might express them. If you listen to Mubarak, the only alternative to his rule is the Muslim Brotherhood, whom he has portrayed as a fundamentalist, anti-Western movement. With this fear, he has reined in support both at home and abroad.

Leaving aside the matter of what the Muslim Brotherhood really stands for, he is offering a false dichotomy.  It is not a choice between “him and them”.

Egyptians have a diverse range of views. The majority of Egyptians are Muslim (around 90%) but some are socially/economically/politically conservative and some are liberal. Most are probably somewhere in between: family- and community-minded, aware of Egypt’s long past, anxious to preserve their values, but desirous of change so that views can be expressed, jobs created, the poor fed, public health improved and opportunities created.

The world does not need to be afraid of allowing the Egyptian people to choose their government.

* * * * *

The Vice-President has repeatedly labelled the protestors a ‘youth movement.’ I have to say, from the point of view of the current regime, anyone under the age of 60 probably counts as ‘youth’.

So I’d like to end with the point of view of one of Egypt’s youth: Patrick had the following conversation with the 11-year old son of a friend:

“I love America, life is great there.”

“Do you want to live in America one day?”

“No way!”

“Why not? You think it's great!”

“Yeah, but one day I want to make life here in Egypt as good as life in America.”